ShodhPatra: International Journal of Science and Humanities

NATO Expansion and the Security Dilemma: Reassessing European Security Architecture in the Context of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict

The article explores the consequences of NATO enlargement on the European security order in terms of the security dilemma, specifically in the context of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. It suggests that despite being touted as a defensive and stabilising initiative designed to promote democracy and collective security, NATO expansion has also created insecurity by fuelling threat perceptions in Russia. The analysis employs a mixed-method approach that combines qualitative discourse analysis with quantitative measures such as military spending and conflict data to map the causal link between NATO expansion, perception of threat in Russia and escalation of conflict. As discussed in the analytical framework, the combination of structural power dynamics, identity-based narratives and institutional processes has created a security dilemma. The results of this study indicate that NATO expansion has played a role in the escalation of the security dilemma by provoking a series of mutual strategic moves, thereby raising the likelihood of conflict escalation rather than contributing to stability. The conclusion of the paper is that European security is still dependent on the combination of deterrence and effective de-escalation and institutional inclusion.